{coyotes} Sportsnet NHL Western Conference final preview, pick

Friday, 11 May 2012

{coyotes} Sportsnet NHL Western Conference final preview, pick

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings

Season series: Los Angeles won 3-1-2

While the casual NHL fan -- especially those who live and work in the East and enjoy a reasonable night's sleep -- might not be too familiar with the tight battles waged between the Phoenix Coyotes and the Los Angeles Kings, these teams are more than a little familiar with each other. Tussling yearlong for position in the Pacific Division, the Coyotes and Kings played each other six times this year.

And their games could not have been much tighter.

Each club won three games. Three of the contests went to overtime, one to a shootout. Half of the six games featured a shutout performance (two by Jonathan Quick, one by Mike Smith), and all of the final five games in the season series were settled by a single goal (the Kings won Oct. 20's game 2-0, a relative blowout.)

That Quick and Smith have saved their best hockey for the playoffs means more of the same. The Kings (1.56) and Coyotes (1.91) are one-two in goals allowed per game in the playoffs. Point blank: the goaltender who survives this series will be the leading candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

If elite goaltending is the entrée of a good playoff series, then a heaping side order of intensity (sprinkled liberally with hatred) is a good complement. Back in mid-February, with both clubs battling for their playoff lives, the Kings and Coyotes racked up 40 penalty minutes in the first period alone. The highlight was a rare all-captains fight between Shane Doan and Dustin Brown (watch above).

Yes, the Winnipeg/Phoenix franchise has never been this deep in the playoffs in its entire 33-year history. Yes, the Kings haven't appeared in a conference final since Wayne Gretzky wore the black and silver. But don't think for a second that they won't know how to put on a show.

For Coyotes to win: "We truly do count on everybody," captain Shane Doan, a 16-year vet who is usually busying himself with the world championships this time of year, told HC@Noon on Thursday. "And when you feel important, you play better."

The Coyotes, as the pun du jour goes, are winning ugly. Smith, an excellent puck-handler, has bailed his teammates out the way a hairdresser has failed to bail him out. The Blackhawks outshot them in all six games they played in Round 1 (the absence of Marian Hossa late in the series didn't exactly hurt Phoenix's fate), and the Predators did the same in three of the five games played in Round 2.

Led points-wise by Columbus acquisition Antoine Vermette (who has nine), the Coyotes consistently stretch their games into extra time. Six of their 11 playoff games have spilled into OT, and they've been lucky. Their goals have been timely more than frequent, and it's anybody's guess who will be the offensive hero each night.

Facing some real-deal shooters in Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown, and perhaps the only goaltender who is seeing the puck as well as Smith, the Coyotes cannot allow themselves to be out-shot every game.

Phoenix must win the special teams battle, which they should be able to do, and hope that Smith doesn't lose an ounce of mojo. If they get a few lucky bounces and bang in a few late-game rebounds, we could see something most never thought imaginable: a Cup final in the desert.

For Kings to win: The Kings, led by head coach Darryl Sutter, have already knocked off a No. 1 and a No. 2 seed in remarkably speedy fashion. The Coyotes, of course, are seed No. 3. In 2004, Sutter's Calgary Flames beat the top three Western Conference seeds en route to the finals. Could history be repeating itself eight years later in a climate more conducive to surfing?

The ease with which the Kings -- hardly your grandfather's eighth seed -- dispatched of the Canucks and Blues is arresting. They went 8-1 against two of the favourites. They are relentless on the road, so the White Out in Phoenix shouldn't pose too much of a threat. And although the franchise hasn't reached a conference final in 19 years, nine Kings have played in a Cup final (four have rings).

Their 92.1% penalty killing has been fantastic, and Brown has four shorthanded points, but they'll need to play disciplined hockey to win the special teams battle. Five on five, it's tough to see the Coyotes beating Quick that often.

The challenge for the Kings will be mind-set. What if they don't steal one early in Phoenix? What if Smith shuts them out in Game 1? After getting a 3-0 series jump on both of their previous opponents, it'll be interesting to see how the Kings respond if things don't go their way early.

While Brown and Kopitar have been incredible, Carter has only one goal thus far. The former Blue Jacket will need to start producing, formerly criticized defenceman Drew Doughty must maintain his elevated play, and Willie Mitchell must continue to be a shutdown specialist.

Big question: Which goalie will crack first? And how many 1-0 or 2-1 triple-overtime games are you willing to watch?

Best bet: Kings in six.