Forward Shane Doan signed a one-year contract with the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday, which will bring him back for a 21st NHL season.
Doan, who made his debut when the franchise played as the Winnipeg Jets, has been one of his team's most important players for most of his career, and last season was no exception. In 2015-16, the 39-year-old Doan led the Coyotes with 28 goals, was third with 47 points, and his average even-strength ice time per game of 13:49 was second among Coyotes forwards to Mikkel Boedker (14:17).
That brings Doan's career totals to 1,466 games, 396 goals and 945 points, which ranks third, seventh, and ninth among active players, respectively. Statistically, what has that meant to this franchise? And what can be expected from him in his remaining years?
A LATE PEAK
There are two key factors when evaluating a player's career performance: How well he played at his peak, and how long he was able to perform at or near that level.
Doan started with the Winnipeg Jets in 1995-96 at age 19, but his career didn't reach its peak until his 30s.
During his first four seasons Doan was used on the checking line and had 22 goals and 62 points in 249 games. At age 23, the Coyotes moved him into the top six and he responded with 26 goals and 25 assists, both of which ranked second on the team to Jeremy Roenick.
Doan didn't reach his peak until eight seasons later, when he had 28 goals and 78 points in 2007-08, and 31 goals and 73 points the following season. That makes him one of 14 players to top 70 points twice in his 30s without doing so previously.
How great was his peak? Doan played for Canada at the 2006 Turin Olympics, and finished sixth in voting for First-Team NHL All-Star in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Those accolades suggest he was viewed as one of the League's top 20 forwards.
Statistically, a player's peak is measured using three seasons, in order to avoid temporary fluctuations. From 2006-07 through 2008-09, Doan had 206 points (86 goals, 120 assists) in 235 games, which ranked 28th in the NHL.
Not all of Doan's contributions can be measured in goals and assists, because he was a physical player who was trusted to prevent goals just as reliably as he scored them.
There are catch-all statistics that attempt to measure all of a player's contributions into a single number. The most popular one that goes back across all of Doan's career is Tom Awad's Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), which estimates how many goals a player scored and/or prevented, relative to the best available replacement in the American Hockey League (or elsewhere).
From that perspective, Doan's peak performance improved the Coyotes by 37.6 goals in that three-season peak, which would place him just outside the League's top-50 players. Historically, that places his peak near those of other respected forwards like Jeff O'Neill, Vinny Prospal and Brian Bellows.
LONGEVITY
Doan's career isn't remarkable for the height of its peak, but for how long and consistently he played near that level, and how much that meant to the franchise.
Starting with his promotion to the top lines in 1999-2000, Doan has scored at least 20 goals in a season 13 times, which ranks third behind Jarome Iginla (15) and Marian Hossa (14) in that same span.
Doan has been a critical source of consistent scoring and leadership for the Coyotes franchise. In 2003-04 he was named captain, a role he still has. In the following seven seasons he had 181 goals and 455 points in 550 games, and led the then-Phoenix Coyotes in scoring all seven seasons. The next highest-scoring player on the team was Ed Jovanovski, who had 164 points in that same time span.
WHAT TO EXPECT
What can we look for from Doan this season, and will it be his last?
His future didn't look bright in 2014-15, when he had 14 goals and 22 assists, and a minus-29 rating that was eighth-worst in the League.
Playing on a line with Brad Richardson and either Jordan Martinook or Max Domi, Doan bounced back in 2015-16 as one of the Coyotes' most valuable top-six forwards and was a key factor in their scoring. Doan took fewer shots on goal in 2015-16 (170) than in 2014-15 (189), but doubled his goal-scoring because of an NHL career-high 16.5 shooting percentage.
In terms of the new shot-based metrics, Doan has placed his team at an advantage in every season in which they have been recorded, dating to 2010-11. In the past six seasons the percentage of shot attempts taken by the Coyotes has been 48.7 percent with Doan on the ice, compared to 47.6 percent when he's not.
It certainly appears he can continue to play for as long as he desires, but the rise of the Coyotes' young forwards like Domi, Anthony Duclair and Dylan Strome eventually will push him down the depth chart. Even then, Doan's leadership and experience will be a key asset, helping to guide Coyotes back into lasting Stanley Cup Playoff contention.
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