Friday 11 May 2012

{coyotes} Western Conference final preview

Situation: The best-of-seven Western Conference final will start Sunday in Phoenix (8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network). Game 2 is Tuesday. Remaining games are TBA.

Goalies: Phoenix's Mike Smith (8-3, 1.77 goals-against average .948 save percentage) vs. Los Angeles' Jonathan Quick (8-1, 1.55, .949)

Season series: The teams split six games, and the Kings outscored the Coyotes 13-11.

Leading scorers: Phoenix, C Antoine Vermette (five goals, four assists); Los Angeles, LW Dustin Brown (six goals, five assists)

History: The Kings haven't been to the conference final since 1993, and the Coyotes have never been this far.

Five factors affecting this series:

1. Goaltending battle: This is a meeting of the top two goalies in the postseason. Quick is a Vezina Trophy candidate, and Smith should have been. It looked like a gamble when the Coyotes signed Smith last summer to replace Ilya Bryzgalov, but Smith (earning $2 million) is probably the best bargain signing of last summer's marketplace. Smith's addition has been the equivalent of adding a franchise scorer. Quick, 26, has established himself as a premium netminder. His goals-against average has gone down and his save percentage has gone up over each of the past three seasons. He has 16 shutouts over the last two seasons. This matchup seems like a toss-up.

2. Centers of attention: In Anze Kopitar and Mike Richards, the Kings have the best two centers in the series. It's a nice one-two punch for the Kings because Kopitar is the skillful puck magician and Richards can do the heavy lifting defensively. He can be abrasive, spunky and fiery, and he's highly skilled. The Coyotes don't have centers with that level of pedigree. Vermette has stepped up his game in the postseason. He's good on faceoffs, but the Coyotes don't have an A-level center. Martin Hanzal is a good, not exceptional, center. The Kings have the advantage down the middle.

3. Defensive zealots:Derek Morris, Rostislav Klesla, Michal Rozsival and Adrian Aucoin are older defensemen who buy into Coyotes coach Dave Tippett's defensive philosophy. They have all adjusted their games to be better defensively. The Coyotes don't give up oodles of scoring chances. Morris blocked 29 shots, and Klesla and Rozsival have blocked 18 each. Meanwhile, Keith Yandle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson provide the offensive spark from the blue line. Since the Coyotes score by committee, they are crucial to Phoenix's offensive thrust. The Kings are also have a stingy defense. Willie Mitchell, Rob Scuderi and Matt Greene play a rugged, gritty defensive style, while Doughty is the two-way star who can be a difference-maker with his offensive flair. Phoenix might be a bit deeper on defense, but don't underestimate the Kings.

4. Both teams hard to play against: Kings captain Dustin Brown is one of the most dedicated hitters in the game, and he's playing at the top of his game. He can set a tone because his hits create turnovers. But Phoenix captain Shane Doan is fourth in the league with 48 postseason hits. This could be a very physical series.

5. Special teams: The Coyotes have been slightly better on the power play, scoring at a rate of 16.1%, compared with 8.5% for the Kings. But the Kings draw more penalties than the Coyotes. The Kings' penalty killing has been spectacular. They have killed off 92.1% of opposition power plays and scored four short-handed goals. The Coyotes have given up only four goals in 38 short-handed situations (89.5%). But they have no short-handed tallies. The Kings have a slight advantage.

Forecast: The Kings have the best chance at a Stanley Cup since Wayne Gretzky was the toast of Tinseltown. But they will need seven games to win this series.

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