Dallas Stars general manager Jim Nill did an extensive, painstaking analysis of how the playoff battles could unfold and his only conclusion was that his work was a waste of his time.
"We all do it," Nill said. "I sat and looked at our schedule, the schedules of the teams we are going up against. I liked things. I didn't like things. Then you realize it just doesn't matter. Might as well throw it out. You don't have any idea what's going to happen night by night."
The Dallas Stars' 5-2 victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning moved them into eighth place, the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They are one point ahead of the Phoenix Coyotes, have a game in hand and also hold the tiebreaker over the Coyotes because of more wins in regulation and overtime.
"There have been nights when I thought we were going to beat someone and we didn't," Nill said. "Then, we go into (first-place) St. Louis and win there."
The fact that some NHL games have two points and some have three (because of overtime) makes it even more difficult to forecast how standings will look two days from now.
Nill is in his first season in Dallas, and it would be a major accomplishment for him if Dallas could qualify for the playoffs after being out for five seasons. He significantly altered the look of the Stars, trading for Tyler Seguin, Sergei Gonchar and Shawn Horcoff and drafting Valeri Nichushkin.
"The way we have to approach it is that we are in the playoffs now and we are going game-by-game," Nill said. "You have to have the mentality that we have to win the next game."
This is the first season the NHL has had wild-card playoff qualifiers, and the races have been as tight and exciting as league officials hoped.
Here's a look at where races stand heading into the final week of the regular season:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The story: The Minnesota Wild, Coyotes and Stars are the primary contenders for the two wild-card spots.
Subplot: The Coyotes, with new ownership, need to make the playoffs to strengthen their fan base.
What we know: All three teams have played up-and-down hockey over the past 10 games. The Stars have been sharper at home, where they play three of their last four games. Any combination of Wild wins and Coyotes regulation losses adding up to two puts Minnesota into the playoffs.
Injuries: Minnesota forward Mikael Granlund (upper body) and goalie Darcy Kuemper (lower body) are out. Phoenix goalie Mike Smith is out with a lower-body injury, and there is no timetable for his return. Dallas injured players include Aaron Rome and Ray Whitney.
Prediction: The Wild will clinch the seventh-place wild-card position, and the eighth-place position will be decided on the final day of the regular season when the Stars visit Phoenix.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The story: The Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets or New Jersey Devils technically could end up with a top-three seed, particularly one of the last two if the Philadelphia Flyers don't turn around their four-game winless streak. However, the realistic look is that those three, plus the Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals are competing for the two wild-card spots.
Subplot: Led by younger players Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan and Danny DeKeyser, the Red Wings have made an impressive late charge to get in position to continue their playoff streak to 23 consecutive seasons.
Subplot II: If the Capitals miss the playoffs, it could prompt major changes. GM George McPhee and coach Adam Oates could be vulnerable. The roster, particularly the defense, could be revamped.
Subplot III: Toronto coach Randy Carlyle might be fighting for his job as well. GM Dave Nonis inherited Carlyle, and it seems likely the coach would be dismissed if the Maple Leafs don't make the playoffs. They give up more shots than any team in the NHL.
What we know: Three of Toronto's last four games are against non-playoff teams. The Blue Jackets' last three games are at Dallas, Tampa Bay and Florida. The Devils play three non-playoffs before finishing up against the No. 1 overall Bruins.
Injuries: Toronto goalie Jonathan Bernier is out three weeks, meaning James Reimer is in net for the rest of the regular season. Columbus defenseman Nikita Nikitin and winger Nathan Horton are day-to-day. Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg could start skating next week, but he's still far from ready. Patrik Elias and Adam Henrique are out for the Devils, who can't afford to be missing significant offensive contributors. They have the weakest offense among the wild-card contenders. Washington's Mike Green left Saturday's game with an upper-body injury.
Prediction: Detroit finishes seventh and Columbus places eighth.
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