Tuesday 8 September 2015

{coyotes} Arizona Coyotes preview: Struggling to grow hockey in desert

 

2014-15 results: 24-50-8, seventh in Pacific

Arrivals: C Boyd Gordon (trade from Edmonton Oilers), D Chris Pronger* and Niklas Grossman (trade with Philadelphia Flyers), RW Steve Downie, RW Brad Richardson, C Antoine Vermette and D Zbynek Michalek (free agent signing)

Departures: C Sam Gagner (traded to Philadelphia Flyers),  LW Lauri Korpikoski (traded to Edmonton),  LW Martin Erat and B.J. Crombeen (free agents), Mark Arcobello (signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs), John Moore (signed with the New Jersey Devils)

Goaltending: The Coyotes still have unwavering faith in No. 1 goalie Mike Smith (14-42-5, 3.16 GAA, .904 SV%), even though he is coming off probably the worst season of his career. Bolstering their optimism is the fact that he was sharper in the second half of the season, particularly in March, and then helped Canada win the gold medal at the World Championships by posting a 1.50 goals-against average and .930 save percentage.

Analysis:  Coyotes fans are back on the roller coaster ride again after the team's 15-year lease with the city of Glendale was canceled by the city. Instead of battling in court, the Coyotes and Glendale agreed to a two-year lease. In other words, fans again have no idea what the future holds for their franchise. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are trying to avoid missing the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. The Coyotes are in what the team is calling "a reboot." They say they are not rebuilding and hope to compete for a playoff spot. It's a given that coach Dave Tippett will have the Coyotes playing better defensively this season. They also expect to be improved on offense. They ranked 29th out of 30 NHL teams, scoring 2.01 goals per game. The Coyotes don't have a returning forward who topped 40 points last season. The situation will be improved this season if Mikkel Boedker and Martin Hanzal can stay healthy. Both forwards could register 50 to 60 points. Shane Doan should still have 20-goal potential.

What advanced stats say: Of the returning players, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has the best puck possession numbers. When he was on the ice, the Coyotes attempted 1,351 shots compared to 1,263 shots for the opposition.  That's an 88-shot differential, 51.68% Corsi rating, which is impressive given how poorly the Coyotes performed last season. Expect more of the same from OEL this season.

Breakthrough candidate:  F Henrik Samuelsson, 21, son of former NHL player Ulf Samuelsson, could be ready to be a offensive contributor this season. He's 6-3, 210 pounds and he had 18 goals and 40 points last season in 68 games for the Portland (Maine) Pirates in the American Hockey League. Few could match his father's feistiness, but the young Samelsson is involved. He had 56 penalty minutes last season.

Youngster to watch:   Max Domi, 20, is the team's best prospect, and he should be ready to step into the Arizona lineup this season. He's the son of former NHL tough guy Tie Domi, but his playing style is nothing like his father's. Young Domi is a smallish, dynamic offensive force who had 102 points for the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League last season.

What the team really needs: An elite center with size. First-round pick Dylan Strome, the brother of New York Islanders winger Ryan Strome, might be the guy. But he's not quite ready for prime time. The expectation is that he will be returned to his OHL team this season.

Key question: What happens to the Coyotes after two seasons? The Coyotes want to stay in Glendale, but it's unknown whether they can negotiate a long-term lease that would satisfy both sides. It's possible the Coyotes could look at moving to Phoenix, or even out of state. The Coyotes want to negotiate a long-term deal immediately because they don't want to go into next summer's free agent signing period not knowing what their future is in Glendale.

Forecast: The Coyotes have an army of quality forward prospects in their system. But that will make them strong in 2018-19, not this season. Their improvement this season isn't likely to get them into the playoffs.

*-The Coyotes took Pronger's contract, but there is no expectation that Pronger will ever play again.

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